The so much awaited Sensex from India. Not much has changed in my opinion, the only doubts surfacing from the chart is whether Wave iii is extending or not... Since my opinion is we're in a bull market, and the waves support that stance and bull markets tend to surprise us for the upside, just as much when in bears anything can happen to the downside.
Just take a look at the huge gap up in May. From the waves I thought at the time we probably were going to have a little correction since the structure had the minimum requirements of completion, but then subwave iii extended... so it's just to say in bull markets surprises on the upside are common so I favour a bit the overextension count... This bull has a loooooooong way to run.
Even if you're not fan of EW just look at the price... that thing is screaming bull market, the trend is up, just follow the trend.
Also, please refer to the chart I posted almost 6 months ago:
So far, it's moving in tandem, and beware this last chart is just a rough estimation since the presentation is a bit poor... The conclusion is, once we finish subwave 1 and correct for subwave 2 and start subwave 3 that should become the strongest and healthier period of this market. It will be a 3rd of a 3rd wave the most powerful wave combo.
Thanks a lot Salvador! Many families were asking for a post on Sensex :D
ReplyDeleteWhen will we know that wave 1 of (3) ended? Maybe when it crosses the 16000, right?
And how can we be sure the wave III of 1 of (3) is extending and has a lot further to go? When it crosses the 17600 level?
Right now I see that the rising wedge got somehow broken on the upside...is this a clue of extension for the wave III or we nee more evidences?
Another thing...imagine the S&P starts the so-called P3 falling wave. Wouldn't it bring the Sensex hardly down too?
Well...so many questions! :)
Just want to tell you that your readers are into the Sensex and will enjoy some frequent updates. At least when you detect key levels in the index, please share with us ;)
Thanks a lot,
JAPO.
wave 1 of 3 ? we're not there we're passed that already...
ReplyDeletethere are 2 counts : either wave 1(red) is finishing soon to take place wave 2(red) or we are extending, which in my opinion is the mostlikely scenario...
Unfortunately I don't have indicators on the chart which would really be helplful to spot if this is a 5th wave or not... regardless this is a bull market so my bias is to the upside... I think 18000-19000 points can be reached in the next couple weeks or so...
If S&P starts P3, I don't think it will influence much... maybe in the beginning could lead to probably the wave 2(red) correction but then they would diverge...
In the 70's in 16 years the Dow was in a big Bear with -15% in 15 years and it wasn't because of that that other markets weren't in bulls... in the same time period india +600%, Japan +1000% and so on... each market has it's own structure
Salvador,
ReplyDelete"wave 1 of 3 ? we're not there we're passed that already..."
I was refering to wave 1 (red) of 3 (inside circle)...
Regards,
JAPO.
oh ok... i'm not even taking wave 3(circle) into consideration... wave 3(circle) is a 7-8 year wave so I won't mention it most of the times since there's no use for it... wave 3 (circle) - which is not labeled on the graph since wave labels are only written at the end of the wave - should take the index to around 50,000 more or less...
ReplyDeleteSo wave 3 circled, is a simple bull market within a secular bull market... once it's over I would expect a simple bear market much like it happened the last couple years...
Thanks so much Sal,
ReplyDeletewow - 18 - 19,000 in a few weeks?
If one were a long term investor; does the charts show when is a good time to buy in again?
Or like the first comment above; will you update and provide a post stating something like "this would be a good time to buy more India funds"?
Thanks for the updates Sal. Appreciate it.
NYC (N)
NYC, remember what i've been telling you way back since March...
ReplyDeleteany good correction is good to buy, we're in a bull market so we have to expect surprises on the upside ! Meaning, that we shouldn't expect big corrections, and it is more likely big runups than big corrections...
I think once wave 1 ends it should begin a bigger correction but again, it's not certain and if that is to happen it's only after the run up... from the intraday charts it looks we're going into a 3rd of a 3rd so expect more highs for the following weeks...
why not incoroporate the passive investing approach like i've been telling you since April? Buy a few chunks every month, as a monthly plan or so... that's what I've been doing
thats what I have been doing too Sal...so basically; for someone in it for the long haul (10-12-15 yrs); we will be just fine by adding regularly...thanks for the reinforcement...
ReplyDeleteNYC (N)
yes NYC...
ReplyDeleteonly when Wave 3 RED ends we should be looking to exit because by then we should experience a simple bear market... but for what i've seen supposely it's still 5-8 years ahead of us until we reach that point... Just a "simple" forecast as example if wave 3 reaches 50,000 points in 6-7 years, then I would expect wave 4 RED to decline 30+% or something...
thanks for the follow up...cant wait for the update in 5 yrs...haha...thanks Sal!
ReplyDeleteNYC (N)
sorry...just saw the chart again...so is the number [3] thats on top of the red would be the exit point...and then it would be a good idea to get in again for another nice ride where number
ReplyDelete[4] is at bottom of red?
NYC (N)
check the 2nd graph only when we reach the rectangle box on [3]
ReplyDelete