Thursday, October 1, 2009

Today's update is directed to show some signs that the top may already be in.
First off we'll start with monthly and weekly charts from DJI.

From those charts you can see how the blue channel, the top line is now resistance. We broke that channel back in last October, and it was when we crashed. We have now bumped into that area. Not only that but check weekly update and you have resistances (drew in white) which in EW corresponds to the previous 4th wave of lesser degree - a common stop for corrections. Not only that but check the red trendline, which is the BEAR MARKET trendline from the top, also lays in that area.

Also the top of the wedge... which can clearly be seen in the S&P graph.

We undercut also today the bottom of the wedge, which is a really bad sign for bulls...

I would give some more leeway in order for the index to try and close above the white trendline again before calling it a confirmation... but so far evidence foretells a bigger correction even if this is not P3.

Check pics:


Not only that, but the USD is showing signs that it has bottomed
at

5 comments:

  1. JAPOOctober 1, 2009 at 10:46 PM

    Hi Salvador,

    P3 appears to be kicking in, but I think more signs are needed.

    For the S&P, the trend line that is supporting (or supported) the movement from March lows is only broken when you present the chart in logarithmic scale. For this tight range (666 - 1080) I think that the broken trend line in linear scale will be the real evidence that P2 has ended its way.

    Regards,
    JAPO

    ReplyDelete
  2. SalvadorOctober 1, 2009 at 11:01 PM

    I don't like log scale... but yes we do need more signs hence I'm saying is not confirmed yet... only signs thus far... but at least a bigger correction is in the cards even if this is only an ABC correction

    ReplyDelete
  3. UnknownOctober 4, 2009 at 4:43 PM

    Hi Salvador .cabbie from the fool here. You had mentioned viewing your agressive portfolio here however I'm having trouble seeing where it is at. knowing your stance I'm sure that you must have some short or put option positions at the moment but can't see em. could you direct me??

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. SalvadorOctober 4, 2009 at 9:36 PM

    Hello Cabbie,

    No the aggressive portfolio is still not on... you can find it though the last time I put up a picture of the table in my blog database, in here:

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/SgtP-s_gtsI/AAAAAAAAAPs/QN425b8jaZY/s1600-h/untitled.PNG

    I haven't posted it because, people may think "oh in hindsight", so I'm "starting from scratch", at least in terms of tracking here in the blog the returns will be 0% and from here on will be tracked by me, and I'm looking for an external website that provides some kind of tracking or something...

    it's not up yet also, because i'm still developing the screeners for each market

    regards

    ReplyDelete
  5. SalvadorOctober 4, 2009 at 9:38 PM

    oh as of now, I only have some contracts short on SP500, and I don't use options. I'm not familiar with them, but one could totaly use them if wanted

    ReplyDelete