Toppy Friday

To me the top lies around here somewhere... The index has lots of big resistance in these areas...and they're not just any resistance, we're talking about resistances made in the brink of financial chaos last year.... they should act as a curtain of iron.

The fact the index rallied just a bit over the 38.2% Fibonacci mark at 1013 (the minimum target required), the fact that optimist is very very high with DSI making a higher reading than in 2007 where it made its all time high at 88%. Last week we had a reading of 90%.

The waning of momentum is perish that the rally is losing strength.

Also regarding time, the rally is now approaching the 6 month target posted back in March
If we take October 2007 top and March bottom we had 73 weeks from top to bottom in March.

A Fibonacci 38.2% correction would be a rally of 28 weeks, putting a target in September 20th-23th as a time window for a top. Although wave structure is more important than time relationships, but these help us figure where a top may lay in. These same methods indicated a time window for a bottom back in March in the 9th-12th day of that month. We know how the story ended.

With this I am now with a full short mindset. I'm starting to scale in, and will add on rips of any kind.

S&P update

P2 or just a subwave of P2?

Still in the air, I favour a new highs around the 1050's maybe a tad higher...

From the graph we do see 5 waves up, the question is, are those subdivision of only wave 1? Or are they all Wave C of Z could deliver to us?

Either way the top is very close indeed

They saved the world...

I enjoy every bit of magazine covers, newspapers, or anything in the media that helps me make my stand on a contrary view...

In March I said most likely once Bernanke and Obama said they saved the world the top of P2 was most likely very near...

Well, look no more...



And then there are so much pessimism regarding the US Dollar that it has no where to go but up... what could be more pessimist to the dollar than this? We still need to get above 79 to confirm a bottom was made, but even if it wasn't made 2 weeks ago is not far away...probably 74-75 max...



This is a free portuguese newspaper, and says something like "a new world reserve currency is needed in order to replace the dollar..."

Bottom should be near if not made already...

Behold P2 !

Well, regarding the blog, I know I need to do something regarding its' design but I suck on blogspot... I'm not that noob when it comes to computers but seriously this thing takes me out of serious... Someone will take care of the design in the future, not to be worried...

Ok, let's take a look at the market...

I still remember March when I said a big rally was coming, somewhere around 50-70% in 5 months and of course nobody or almost nobody would think such thing.... 5 months after and look where we are now !

Now that we're at 1000 pts, now people want to start buying... when they should be selling. Markets work in paradoxal ways, and deceives the largest number of intervenients.

Reminder: http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com/2009/03/s-almost-bottoming.html

So the charts I have now are, some to situate us in the very big picture and what lies ahead of us... take lines just as an ilustration of a text book structure, but it should look similar more or less...


Now, this same picture we can have 2 basic patterns of standard TA, the M figure and double top, both of which have targets around the same area on the boxes I drew in the chart...

Also take into consideration, according to EW rules the end of C should be in the price area of the previous 4th wave and as you can see C ends above... that is the case because well I'm being conservative, but textbook should end between 200 pts and 375 points, but let's just take the graph scenario, which itself is already a hell of a decline:



Now last but not least, including today's price action...







And a mid term picture...




I would also like to point you out to this... After NEWSWEEK with the cover in bold letters saying "RECESSION IS OVER" now we have this http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e00989822288330120a55b7db6970c-popup

Also, IMF came to public stating the recession is indeed over... What else can a contrarian want?

I rest my case your honor

USD update

I'm in the middle of my vacation but since I have several positions on USD I thought of just chiming in and see how USD was doing since 7 days ago...

From what I can see with the limited graphs access I have now, it seems a reversal is indeed taking form in USD. My target at 75.47 missed the actual low by 0.01 ... Beginner's luck I guess eheheh...

Anyways if everything goes accordingly, mid term USD Index should go above 90 ... and perhaps initiate a big bull market, but first things first and let's not get carried away... The area around 80 is still an obstacle to overcome... so let's root for that.

Taking some time off....

Will be vacationing (again) for the next 2 weeks, so I won't be able to update anything...

This better top while I'm gone... :-D