The markets keep churning higher, and I guess most will be turning bullish soon if not already. I myself feel uncomfortable being bearish as of now, but let's remember what I said back in March: that P2 would make its work by turning everyone bullish and that maybe even I would start to question myself.
It's amazing how psychology works, I remember back in March people saying "Let the market go to 1100 pts again, or DOW 10,000... I'll go massive short!! That will be a gift..."
Many that have said it, now of course don't have the balls to do it. I don't blame them, I don't have them myself as well. We can't dive with our heads into this, we need to go with calculated risks. If indeed the market turns, there will be a lot of points to gain, either if you short at the top, or 100 pts lower. What I think is that 1 year from today many will look back and think "ohh it was so easy...if only...." - I think in a year from now we'll be way lower than where we stand today in my not so humble opinion.
Anyhow, the futures made some great action today and it looks like 5 waves have formed, meaning a bigger correction be in the cards, so I think at least a correction we should have. If it turns out to be the top even better, but let's not get carried ourselves just yet ...
Now... let's get those books out of our shelves shall we?
Sal, excellent post man! That is just the way it is at turning points. Everybody in March was saying "we're doomed! All hands abandon ship!", just like everybody now is saying "New bull market!"
ReplyDeleteI don't know if it is one (a top) or not. But if you look at the internals of this last wave, they sure have all the earmarks of a topping wave: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/spx-says-pass-me-binaca.html.
And yeah, while the cash indices are muddy, the futures are showing a nice 5 wave down (good call!). But the impulse is very clear on the Nasdaq and the Russell.
So if this is not a top, it is shaping up to be at least a decent sized and tradeable pullback.
Thanks man!
Hello Salvador.
ReplyDeleteMy 2 cents.
Last update spx have four charts.
2 charts weekly - possible bearish divergence RSI
1 chart daily - Mybe one more high - possible pattern RSI - "M" - Who many tops they made that.
1 chart hourly cash - Bear need to break the channel
Sorry for the link but my last update have only charts.
I follow you every days great analysis, thanks.
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/10/spx-update-weeklydailyhourly.html
P.S. Tá tudo bem? Nunca mais te vi no msn. Abraço
ehehh thanks binve... P2 is indeed frustrating the bears... very complex indeed. But my view is, once we turn, we will turn for good. then a lot of buy and holders will be crying out for help
ReplyDeleteHi all,
ReplyDeleteS&P looks definitely to be in the end of an ascending triangle. It's also in the neighborhood of the 50% fibonacci retracement since the 2007 high and the 2009 low.
This will probably mark (at least) an intermediate top and provide a nice tradable short call.
I think that, although most people is bullish right now, most of them are also waiting for a good correction since march lows and this is what has been feeding the new highs after the 23rd september high, fooling the bears. If the correction will bring new lows or not, it's soon and hard to tell Let's play the game...
In my opinion, there is few days left before the so awaited correction begins. Be careful!
Bye.
speeder yup I think that too, and that is to say if it didn't start already... i counted 5 waves down, it can be a C wave though, so only breaking friday's (?) or Thursday's low will confirm it that the correction is ongoing
ReplyDelete