Very late update...

I apologize for the very late update but I was a bit busy lately so I didn't have much time focusing on doing an appropriate update.

In regards to the indexes, not much has been going on... We've been in this boring range tight market for almost 2 months. What I said before still stands. We should be rolling over soon.

In fact, the dollar seems to have changed to the beginning of an uptrend. This reinforces the possibility of the indexes following suit soon.

EURUSD has definitely changed the trend... in fact wave 5 seems to be extending. Euro may find support in the 1.43xx area.

USD Index seems to have broken out of the downward channel it had been for almost 5 months. It also broke it's Long term trendline. Add this to the fact that the Elliott Wave Structure looks complete now, it has a very high degree of possiblity to begin quite a rally here.

First target will obviously be the 221 MA.

Although USD Index is very correlated to the indexes it doesn't mean they move in exact tandem. In EW terms for example USD Index could now be in the beginning of Wave 1 up, while the indexes (S&P and DOW) are in the midst of the final wave. This happened in 2008 in a lot of assets (ones being already in wave 1 down while others still upward). EURUSD for example should correct soon a bit, this could be a catalyst for new highs on the indexes (for their final wave) while Euro failing to make new highs (which i find very unlikely).

Gold and Silver seem to have started the downward move as well....

To me, this seems to be the long term picture...

EDIT

Also we're almost making changes in our LM Portfolio. Again, if you followed the portfolio, I hope you took my hint of starting the portfolio on November 1st due to seasonality. Long term, it shows that buy ins starting November have a statistical edge over other periods. It may not happen one year or another but long term it seems to be this way, so this was the reason on my own portfolio I did the same as I stated before the September 26th buy in.

This seasonality chart shows the reasoning behind it:

   As you can see, most the buy calendar periods fall in either trending up periods or after a big correction (August-October period).

I will go further in detail on this, once we make an update of LM Portfolio

Correction looming?

EURUSD has now what appear to be complete 5 waves. So a correction may be in the cards very soon.

A target for longs would have the 1.4850 as the minimum target.

Coawabanga...

Hello everyone. Not much to add regarding the indices front. They remain at the same juncture pretty much and long-term I am still bearish. There are a few developments though in other assets like EURUSD, Gold, AUDUSD and the Dollar Index, which to me is becoming the most relevant asset to merit a close watch. As I said a few weeks ago, it's all about the dollar...

S&P remains the same juncture... just under the 50% Fib and look at the divergences going on - this is a different indicator than the last few weeks:

 EURUSD sports the same divergences, and also broke the trendline that was supporting it a few days ago...

 Add that to the major sell off last week, but most importantly the characteristics of the sell off... Classic textbook Elliott Wave form with 5 waves down as you can see in the picture... so at least a deeper correction is on the cards... a correction would dump EURUSD into the 1.43 area, while a reversal would be the start of the decline under last year's low.

AUDUSD has many resemblances to EURUSD. In fact, AUDUSD was the first pair to sport 5 waves down a week or more ago if I recall correctly. This too, should have more downside potential. A trading plan here, alike EURUSD would be to short on the rallies like a 38 or 50% Fibonacci retracement of friday's decline.

Now, let's move to GOLD. That little shinny yellow object that most of us love. Who doesn't ? :-D

Anyways, here to we have MAJOR divergences, and for the first time in a long time we have a textbook Elliott Wave form decline, sporting 5 waves down. It can't get cleaner than this. Again the plan here would be to wait for a little rally into the 38-50 Fibonacci area and then getting in.

Oh I almost forgot... one more thing. Remember my charts on USD Index? I've been favoring a big rally coming on USD. Lately, it seems USD has found a bid. Let's see if it can continue this strong. It's imperative to remain strong and break those resistances. But here's what I prep for you guys...

An ABC flat looks like this:

Now let's take a  peek into USD Index...

Now tell me I'm not seeing things... any resemblance with real life is purely coincidental. :-D

EDIT:

I want to make an update on something I forgot to talk about. Last Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. I saw a lot of cheering because the report was so much better than expected and how the unemployment dropped from 10.2% to 10%. Well, I don't see a reason for cheering such numbers. And why is that?

We have to take into account the season we're in. I don't know how it is in USA - well actually I do - but here in Portugal, stores during November start to recruit a lot of workers for the Christmas season, but then what? They get dumped in January pretty much. So I don't see much reason to cheer... the drop in the numbers of NFP were ONLY because of the hiring due to the TEMPORARY hiring companies ensued for Christmas. Wal-Mart alone accounted for the creation of around 65,000 temporary jobs! So we know how this will be once all those temp workers get dumped for unemployment again...

And we all know how BLS tracks unemployment figures ... here's something you should watch:

Are you unemployed?

Keep preaching it...

I keep preaching the same on and on at these levels... Today's market price action seems to be at least a top for a sizeable correction.

In Foreign Exchange markets -currencies - the USD is very strong. I could argue for the bottom to be in for USD. We'll see...

Further developments will be made during this weekend where I expect to pour a lot of graphs so I can make all bulltards see the light :-D