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Friday, October 30, 2009

Weekend waves...

Some other waves other than EW were ripping this week in Portugal. The best 45 surfers in the world took their chance against the hawaiian's Pipeline twin lost brother eheheh...

Here are some highlights... Enjoy !

Yippie-kai-yay mother...

I hate so much when I'm right :-D

I'm getting more convinced by the minute this is P3. If it is there's no need to jump the wagon just yet if you're conservative and may want to wait for more confirmations.

As for the intraday charts this is what I have, sorry they're already outdated

 This is the view of yesterday's graph, and is only blue wave 5 going to [1]

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

P3 ongoing...

P3 is ongoing my friends, that's what I see of this movement...

Remember this chart I posted 3 weeks ago? I said after the break of the wedge line we needed to retest it and then kiss goodbye.

 I though we'd retest it in a more faster manner, but what the index actually did was this:

It went up and up bumping up every time against the resistance, trying to regain the wedge failed and to me is a kiss death goodbye. Sayonara bulls.

P3 is ongoing folks, as I see it... of course I'll look like a damn fool if I happen to be wrong, which may well happen.

Just pity the fool:

On similar fashion, the USD has broken it's long term trendline... it looks I picked the right night, the other day on USD since that so far was the day of the low... The trendline was also retested and reacted positively, so it all looks good for a trend reversal...

 On a short term basis, and regarding S&P, we're now oversold, and we have a few important news coming up for the next 2 days, so volatility should come knocking. A bounce reaction to those news may happen and they would actually help to clear some of the oversoldness... And the structure calls for a bounce as well...

See the following graph:

Billion dollar question...

So, Primary wave 3 or not?

That is the question, but I think it may well be... if it is, prepare yourselves.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Benjie's update...

Today I'm updating my expectations on the dollar. As you know I've been bullish for the dollar since god knows when... Back in July with EURUSD at 1.45'ish and USD index around 77 I said I was expecting the USD Index to bottom around 75.40's ... I thought it would be a quick deal, going down to that level and then start shooting up...
 Forward almost 4 months and no USD rally... what went wrong?

In my opinion, nothing at all, USD in my perspective is still very poised to rally big big time, but it has taken a lot of time in these up and downs since July. The fact is the price never went too far from my projection... the low so far is 74.90's which is very close to my projection and nothing to worry about... I guess that in order for the USD to bottom it needs to consolidate and form a base on these levels so that once it's ready it can shoot up. My mid-term/longer term perspective is that USD is poised to rally big time.

The daily charts are showing some big positive divergences, so the rally may be around the corner... big divergences on the dailies+very strong support = rally time.

Unfortunately my chart feeds aren't working right now so I can't show any charts... but Daneric at his blog does show some nice charts on USD (see the nice divergences going on?)

Saturday, October 24, 2009


I'm tired and don't feel like updating... it's my blog anyway eheh... I will do an update later into the weekend.

Meanwhile I'll leave you some food for thought "it's the Choo choo Shoe!!"

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Crazy Wednesday

WOW what a day... after creeping up towards 1100 once again, to my surprise after I left my PC to go watch some Champions League Football, I come back and see S&P dropped 30 points into the close !!

This to me smells reversal !! Here are some charts:


A reversal may be just around the corner...

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

EWI Disclaimer

As of today, is a proud member of Elliott Wave International family, as an affiliate.
Being myself a subscriber I of course highly recommend them, and to be honest, I wait eagerly every time for their updates, be it the 3x weekly updates or the monthly newsletters.

Robert Prechter writes the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist, and in my opinion Bob is a genious, and explains his thoughts in such easy and comprehensible terms that even a 4 year old would understand.

Even if you don't subscribe to their services, you can always be a EWI Club member for FREE. That will give you lots of free content, from tutorials for technical analysis, fibonacci's, videos, real estate reports, stock market reports, access to their FAQ forum, and a whole bunch of other goodies.

Not to mention that being a member is absolutely free with lots of goodies (and really worthily goodies) but also their subscriptions are risk free since they're refundable.



Monday, October 19, 2009

New goodies...

Rise and shine everybody... a new week awaits us. I have a few updates to announce.

At the bottom of the page, you will find now a chat room which we can use for real-time comments during market hours or just to goof a bit.

Also I am still working on the screener thing in order to filter all good potential trades, once that's up and done which I think it may be very soon, I will start using it in here for a kind of more aggressive portfolio.

I also ask you, if possible, for you to become a member/follower of the blog... c'mon 25 followers still, we need to ramp up those numbers, so stop lurking and step up and become a follower.. you are of course more than welcome.

If for any reason, you think the chat room should be placed in another area of the page let me know, I thought the bottom would be suited best since it can accommodate a large enough window...

You may have noticed as well that for any inquires just use the webpage e-mail which is posted at the right side of the page...

I wish you all a good week.

Friday, October 16, 2009

DOW 36,000 !

I've been kind of hibernating lately. The truth is I couldn't find anything to say or to add to what had already been said.

The markets keep churning higher, and I guess most will be turning bullish soon if not already. I myself feel uncomfortable being bearish as of now, but let's remember what I said back in March: that P2 would make its work by turning everyone bullish and that maybe even I would start to question myself.

It's amazing how psychology works, I remember back in March people saying "Let the market go to 1100 pts again, or DOW 10,000... I'll go massive short!! That will be a gift..."

Many that have said it, now of course don't have the balls to do it. I don't blame them, I don't have them myself as well. We can't dive with our heads into this, we need to go with calculated risks. If indeed the market turns, there will be a lot of points to gain, either if you short at the top, or 100 pts lower. What I think is that 1 year from today many will look back and think "ohh it was so easy...if only...." - I think in a year from now we'll be way lower than where we stand today in my not so humble opinion.

Anyhow, the futures made some great action today and it looks like 5 waves have formed, meaning a bigger correction be in the cards, so I think at least a correction we should have. If it turns out to be the top even better, but let's not get carried ourselves just yet ...

Now... let's get those books out of our shelves shall we?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009


Today behaved as expected. We did indeed test the underside of the wedge and it reacted instantly.

Now the million dollar question... Will it turn right here or keep on going?

Honestly I have no idea. Today's internal metrics were very bullish with Advance/Declines north of 8 to 1.

I actually re-entered my shorts that I dumped at 1020 today. I'm not very confident at the moment but I will pay to see if the bulls can make it go higher, I'm using Zé Manel's stop

Someone brought to my attention, on some other blogs using my graphs. I don't mind people using my graphs as long as they credit me. I would appreciate that if you do use them, please make a little comment crediting me or refer to this blog.

Thank you

Monday, October 5, 2009

Presidential Monday Rubdown

Today was a holiday here in Portugal. The day where Portugal turned from a monarchy into a republic. October 5th of 1910, one year short of a century.

It was not until a year later that my great grandfather would become the 1st elected President of my country. True story!

Apart from that, let's check the S&P. This little decline somehow feels different, the bulls have been really cocky the past couple days, and are pretty sure we'll see new highs. I don't say that's impossible, but the fact that the mood is different makes me thing otherwise. Also a few charts look different was well.

Zé Manel also gave a SELL signal past friday on the daily charts- which the last time it did was June 16th, and the wedge is more than broken right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see the index go test the underside of the bottom of the wedge...

Also take a look at the last chart at the bottom, from Mole at EvilSpeculator. Something different in the cards? I don't know, just putting ideas on the table... also if anyone would want to know Zé Manel system would indicate to go short at market with a stop at 1071'ish.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's impossible to go higher, I actually am very cautious on both sides, although I would lean a bit more into the bearish case, even if we rise a few more points in order to test the broken trendline.

Cheers everyone

Friday, October 2, 2009

Zé Manel update

Update on Zé Manel on Daily and Weekly

And the Dollar:

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Today's update is directed to show some signs that the top may already be in.
First off we'll start with monthly and weekly charts from DJI.

From those charts you can see how the blue channel, the top line is now resistance. We broke that channel back in last October, and it was when we crashed. We have now bumped into that area. Not only that but check weekly update and you have resistances (drew in white) which in EW corresponds to the previous 4th wave of lesser degree - a common stop for corrections. Not only that but check the red trendline, which is the BEAR MARKET trendline from the top, also lays in that area.

Also the top of the wedge... which can clearly be seen in the S&P graph.

We undercut also today the bottom of the wedge, which is a really bad sign for bulls...

I would give some more leeway in order for the index to try and close above the white trendline again before calling it a confirmation... but so far evidence foretells a bigger correction even if this is not P3.

Check pics:

Not only that, but the USD is showing signs that it has bottomed

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