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Sunday, January 17, 2010

Long time no see...

Good weekend everyone...

There have been a lack of posts lately from my part. Today I'm updating a few foreign charts.

Our Sensex from India and introducing the brazilian Bovespa. I'm also very very bullish in this one for a long time. I've said it before that apart from India, I think a few other countries in Southeast Asia are in bull markets in my opinion as well. Those are South Korea and Singapore and also Indonesia, and add that to Brazil.

Brazil actually I believe it's very similar to India. We're in a secular bull market, and this rise is only the start of a Primary 3rd Wave in EW terms. So there's lot of bull market to run in these ones. My opinion is these SECULAR bulls will last around 20 years. Of course we'll have simple bear markets in between, which I've made clear in India for example. I think we'll have a simple Bear Market around the 55,000 level in around 7 years or so. It will be something like this past bear market OR due to the alternation rule in EW terms, some kind of a sideways market (a triangle) very much alike the Dow Jones in the 70's.

But that is still very far away.

My opinion for the last few months was that a top in India was to be reached around the 18,000 level for the end of Wave (1). Indeed it seems to be struggling around that area, and it seems Wave (1) is pretty much finished.

Now the problem is 2nd Waves can retrace deep. I wouldn't be surprised for the coming 2nd Waves in the markets I consider bullish, to be deep, especially considering what I expect from SP500 and other markets. I expect new lows on Western countries' markets, so in this case the scenario could be, all bullish markets to follow SP500 in tandem until a certain point and then diverging.

The bull ones going up, and SP500 and most european countries keep declining.

Still, for long term my bias goes to keep adding capital every month to a fund exposed to these markets (Brazil, India, etc) much alike a passive investing strategy.

As long as these graphs don't show a SELL signal, I wouldn't be worried. If they happen to show a sell signal, I'll issue it here right away, and the prudent thing to do may be to get out. But so far so good, nothing is looking grim on the horizon...

Both trends are up both on Daily and Weekly charts, so we should be good :)

The LMP portfolio is also looking good, and from now on my screeners I will incorporate companies from India and Brazil as long as they also trade in NYSE. We should get a few goodies by incorporating both those markets.
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