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Friday, May 14, 2010

Bull's Eye

After the past 10 months I've been commenting about the 1.23 level. We are now under that territory at 1.23 and a few sprinkles.

With the overextended pessimism going on, and the naysayers, I am becoming more confident we'll see a big rebound soon. Looking at the structure, the 5th wave extension keeps ongoing, but it is my view it will soon be over in order to give place for a rebound.

Anyways, since the trade is so overcrowded now, I am starting to build a long position on € against the $. Needless to say that I am going against the trend right now, so it's a bit swimming against the current. But at times, when extremes happen, one has to know when to stop. I think we are under such circumstances right now... I will keep adding new positions on the way down. Note, that I'm not averaging down, I have already established my risk on this trade, but instead of going all in I am scaling in until my total risk position is filled.

Here's a weekly current view of Euro:
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