Monday, August 2, 2010
Friday, July 2, 2010
LMP End of Week update
Though we didn't make money today, we still managed to outperform the market by a mere +0.06%.
I'm happy with the performance so far, and I hope the overlay "hedging" strategy helps you sleep better at night. Let me know, after the fact, since we've had the last couple months have been down months, if the strategy benefited you at any level. Let me know your feedback.
So far, we've been able to maintain the profits, while the market has been going down.
Another short stat for the portfolio is:
- Market return Year-to-Date: -7.35%
- LMP return Year-to-Date: +7.8%
In my opinion for such a low transaction portfolio this is a huge over performance, we are not trading, our stocks have been held around 12-13 months ! I'm happy with this...
I wish big returns for all of us in the coming years...
And to all Americans out there reading myBullmarket, I wish you a happy 4th of July !!
I'm happy with the performance so far, and I hope the overlay "hedging" strategy helps you sleep better at night. Let me know, after the fact, since we've had the last couple months have been down months, if the strategy benefited you at any level. Let me know your feedback.
So far, we've been able to maintain the profits, while the market has been going down.
Another short stat for the portfolio is:
- Market return Year-to-Date: -7.35%
- LMP return Year-to-Date: +7.8%
In my opinion for such a low transaction portfolio this is a huge over performance, we are not trading, our stocks have been held around 12-13 months ! I'm happy with this...
I wish big returns for all of us in the coming years...
And to all Americans out there reading myBullmarket, I wish you a happy 4th of July !!
Thursday, July 1, 2010
House numbers
Today the house numbers were really really bad: -30% which was a number 3 times higher than what it was expected.
This is what I've warned before and before, without the FED intervening the market just collapses. We've seen good numbers for the past 12 months, exclusively due to the programs that the FED implemented throughout the country in order to hold the prices. So, once they ended the programs back in April, we now see these numbers !
Now what will they do? Let the market function properly or intervene once more ? If they do, where will they get the money? Print it? They can't hold the prices forever... either it breaks, or they will have to print themselves out of this mess, and then face freakin' super inflation. No matter what the step is, it leads to a crisis either deflation or superinflation...
Again, the crisis is en route !
P.S - Today was another good day for the portfolio ! Despite of the decline of the markets of -0.5% and in the middle of the day the markets even got to -1.7%, the portfolio ended the day in the green at a variation of +0.53% ...
Let's hope it keeps this way on the down days ;)
A few stats:
+47.16% return since inception (dividends not included)
+24.52% annual return (dividends not included)
Portfolio vs. Market = +60.54% (dividends not included) - our overperformance from yesterday increased from the high 59.xx%'s to 60.54% an increase of almost 1% which is great !!
Market Return since inception of Portfolio: -13.38% (dividends not included)
June Market Return: -6.1%
June LMP Return: +2.02%
What does this mean? Translating it, it means that yes our stocks as a whole went declined as well, but they declined only -4.08% while the market declined more than 6%, and since we are short the market, thus the difference is our gain.
This is what I've warned before and before, without the FED intervening the market just collapses. We've seen good numbers for the past 12 months, exclusively due to the programs that the FED implemented throughout the country in order to hold the prices. So, once they ended the programs back in April, we now see these numbers !
Now what will they do? Let the market function properly or intervene once more ? If they do, where will they get the money? Print it? They can't hold the prices forever... either it breaks, or they will have to print themselves out of this mess, and then face freakin' super inflation. No matter what the step is, it leads to a crisis either deflation or superinflation...
Again, the crisis is en route !
P.S - Today was another good day for the portfolio ! Despite of the decline of the markets of -0.5% and in the middle of the day the markets even got to -1.7%, the portfolio ended the day in the green at a variation of +0.53% ...
Let's hope it keeps this way on the down days ;)
A few stats:
+47.16% return since inception (dividends not included)
+24.52% annual return (dividends not included)
Portfolio vs. Market = +60.54% (dividends not included) - our overperformance from yesterday increased from the high 59.xx%'s to 60.54% an increase of almost 1% which is great !!
Market Return since inception of Portfolio: -13.38% (dividends not included)
June Market Return: -6.1%
June LMP Return: +2.02%
What does this mean? Translating it, it means that yes our stocks as a whole went declined as well, but they declined only -4.08% while the market declined more than 6%, and since we are short the market, thus the difference is our gain.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
LMP Update v2
We are still postponing the purchase of the new companies, which still weren't announced. They will be soon.
Apart from that, the portfolio is doing wonders so to speak. The last batch of stocks that that were bought a year ago, and sold yesterday, the average return translated into +18% (not including dividends) while the S&P during the same time period (June 2009 - June 2010) made +12.5%.
Of the 6 stocks though, the outperformance clearly came from 2 companies only, but that is to be expected. Some will underperform (usually the majority) while a couple ones will make heavy over performance covering all the underperformance of the other stocks and then some making it possible to beat the market.
Also I'm glad we did make the change on the strategy as well. The hedging part of our portfolio, where I use a longer term version of "Zé Manel" serving as an overlay to neutral our portfolio by shorting the market as a whole, while keeping our beloved stocks. Since we first started this overlay, our overperformance increased from +46% to +60% as of today !
This means that our stocks as a whole have been falling less than the market as a whole, and at times even being able to make a bit of money. Of course under this strategy the goal is not to make money, but to hedge our portfolio of market risk and to maintain our gains and for us to be dependent on our stock picks exclusively.
For example, today which was a down day for the market with more than 1% down, we actually managed to gain a few dollars with an up day of our portfolio of +0.50% ... I wish all days could be like this :) it won't... but we should keep our eyes on the big picture, and I believe we really do have a winning strategy here
EDIT: The portfolio as of today
Apart from that, the portfolio is doing wonders so to speak. The last batch of stocks that that were bought a year ago, and sold yesterday, the average return translated into +18% (not including dividends) while the S&P during the same time period (June 2009 - June 2010) made +12.5%.
Of the 6 stocks though, the outperformance clearly came from 2 companies only, but that is to be expected. Some will underperform (usually the majority) while a couple ones will make heavy over performance covering all the underperformance of the other stocks and then some making it possible to beat the market.
Also I'm glad we did make the change on the strategy as well. The hedging part of our portfolio, where I use a longer term version of "Zé Manel" serving as an overlay to neutral our portfolio by shorting the market as a whole, while keeping our beloved stocks. Since we first started this overlay, our overperformance increased from +46% to +60% as of today !
This means that our stocks as a whole have been falling less than the market as a whole, and at times even being able to make a bit of money. Of course under this strategy the goal is not to make money, but to hedge our portfolio of market risk and to maintain our gains and for us to be dependent on our stock picks exclusively.
For example, today which was a down day for the market with more than 1% down, we actually managed to gain a few dollars with an up day of our portfolio of +0.50% ... I wish all days could be like this :) it won't... but we should keep our eyes on the big picture, and I believe we really do have a winning strategy here
EDIT: The portfolio as of today
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